A professor in the UK has the "No Silver Bullet" paper online.
This point from the paper is something I'm trying to remember and maybe follow up on later by reading about how Agile software development attempts to address this.
Requirements refinement and rapid prototyping. The hardest single part of building a software system is deciding precisely what to build. No other part of the conceptual work is as difficult as establishing the detailed technical requirements, including all the interfaces to people, to machines, and to other software systems. No other part of the work so cripples the resulting system if done wrong. No other part is more difficult to rectify later.
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